---
title: "Pre-mortem: the decision already failed, why?"
slug: pre-mortem-decision-ia
lang: en
situation: gobernar
format: hoja
minutes: 15
updated: 2026-10-19
---

# Pre-mortem: the decision already failed, why?

> For the team about to approve a hard-to-reverse AI decision that wants to hear the risks before signing, not twelve months later.

## When to use it

- Tomorrow you approve an AI purchase, contract or rollout that would take months to undo.
- Everyone nods in meetings and nobody objects, and that worries you more than an argument would.
- There was already a project "nobody saw coming" and you do not want to hear that sentence again.

## The sheet

Instruction for the group: "It is twelve months from today. The decision we are about to approve failed. Not partially: we cancelled it. Write down why."

| Reason it failed | Early signal (what we would see at 60–90 days) | What we would change today | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| [One concrete cause, in one sentence. Illustrative: "The sales team never adopted the tool."] | [An observable data point, not a feeling. Illustrative: "Fewer than 20% of reps open it in week 8."] | [One action before approval. Illustrative: "A named rep joins the pilot from week 1."] | [Name] |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |
| | | | |

Decision under review: ____________________ · Pre-mortem date: ____________ · Next signal check: ____________

## How to fill it in 15 minutes

1. Minutes 0–2. Read the instruction aloud. Nobody speaks yet. "It already failed" is not the facilitator's opinion; it is the rule of the exercise.
2. Minutes 2–6. Silent writing. Each person writes at least three reasons on their own sheet, no comments. Silence protects the uncomfortable reasons.
3. Minutes 6–10. Round. Each person reads one reason, in turn, with no reply. Repeat until no new reasons remain. Nobody defends the decision during the round; that moment comes later.
4. Minutes 10–14. Group the repeated reasons and pick the four or five that worry you most. For each one, fill in the early signal and what you would change today.
5. Minute 15. A name in every row. A row without an owner is a risk nobody is watching.
6. The most common mistake: using the exercise to confirm the decision is sound. If few reasons come out, or they are all mild, the group is protecting whoever proposed the decision, not the company.

## Rules for running it

- No ranks during the round: the newest person reads before the most senior one.
- Reasons are written before anyone speaks. Speaking first makes everyone write the same thing.
- Do not debate whether a reason is "likely"; debate which early signal would give it away.
- Whoever proposed the decision takes part, writes and listens. They do not facilitate.

## The line that is almost always missing

The early-signal column. A pre-mortem that ends in a list of risks gets filed. A pre-mortem that ends in an observable signal at 60 or 90 days, with an owner, becomes an item on the next review agenda. That column is the difference between an exercise and a control.

## If this becomes a big decision

If the decision is hard to reverse and carries your name, the free tools at vicsol.org/decision-clarity/ help you structure it. They do not replace a formal review.

---

Vic Sol · Decision Desk · vicsol.org/resources/ · Free to use with attribution.
This sheet structures a conversation; it is not legal, financial or audit advice.