Vic Sol · Decision DeskEditable template · 15 min to use
One-page AI business case (with its evidence gaps)
For anyone who has to convince a CFO with recovered minutes and would rather show the gaps before someone else finds them.
When to use it
A pilot went well and you are asked for "the business case" to scale it.
The vendor gave you a savings figure and nobody has recalculated it.
You are going to committee and know the first question will be "and how do you know that?".
The sheet
Block
What to write
Illustrative example
1. Decision
One sentence: what is being approved, for how long and who signs.
"Extend the quoting assistant to three branches for 12 months. Signed by: sales director."
2. Baseline
Volume, time per task, review and exceptions measured before, with date and sample.
"600 quotes a month, 12 min each, measured in September over 80 cases."
3. Costs that go in
Licences, integration, supervision (hours of whoever reviews), training and exit (what it costs to switch off).
"Licence + CRM connection + 2 min of review per quote + training + exporting data on exit."
4. Verified benefit
What was already measured in the pilot, with the same scope as the baseline.
"From 12 to 6 min per quote, 80 cases, six weeks."
5. Estimated benefit
What is projected from the verified part, with the assumption written down.
"60 hours a month released if volume and adoption hold."
6. Assumed benefit
What someone hopes for and nobody has measured. Kept separate.
"More quotes won by replying sooner."
7. Sensitivity
What happens if the benefit is half: does the decision still hold?
"At 30 hours a month it covers the licence but does not justify the integration this year."
How to fill it in 15 minutes
Write block 1 first. If it does not fit in one sentence, it is not a decision yet; it is an idea.
Fill the baseline with data you already have. If there is none, write it: "no baseline" is a gap, not an embarrassment.
Split the benefit across blocks 4, 5 and 6; the temptation is to put everything under "verified".
List all five costs even if one is zero. Supervision and exit are the ones that almost never appear.
Run the test with half the benefit. If the decision does not hold, say so before the CFO does.
The most common mistake: turning released hours into money saved. A released hour is capacity; it is only a saving if a real cost falls or that capacity is redeployed to something measurable.
The five questions the CFO will ask
What baseline and sample support the benefit?
Who reviews the outputs and handles the exceptions, and what does that time cost?
Which cost actually changes, or where is the released capacity redeployed?
What happens if adoption is lower or the benefit is half?
What evidence would make us stop the plan, and what does it cost to exit?
The line that is almost always missing
Block 6. Almost every business case blends what was measured with what is hoped for and presents it as a single number. Separating the assumed benefit does not weaken the case: it makes it defensible, because the CFO will find that blend anyway.
Vic Sol · Decision Desk · vicsol.org/resources/ · Free to use with attribution. This sheet structures a conversation; it is not legal, financial or audit advice.
Open the .docx in Word (or the .xlsx in Excel) or print it before the meeting.
Fill the fields with the team; leave the blanks visible, they are the discussion.
Close with one owner, one date and one next action. Nothing else.
Prompt
Generate this sheet for your case
Paste this prompt into ChatGPT, Claude or Gemini together with your proposal, process or policy. It reproduces the sheet with your data and flags what is missing.
Act as a chief financial officer who has reviewed dozens of technology proposals and who rejects any benefit that does not distinguish what was measured from what is hoped for.
Context I am giving you:
- Proposed decision (what, for how long, who signs): [ ]
- Baseline measured before: volume, time per task, review, exceptions, date and sample: [or write "no baseline"]
- Pilot results, if any: [ ]
- Known costs: licences, integration, supervision, training, exit: [ ]
- Vendor proposal or savings figure: [paste text]
What I need: write the business case on one page with these seven blocks, in this order:
1. Decision in one sentence.
2. Baseline.
3. Costs that go in (all five, even if one is zero).
4. Verified benefit.
5. Estimated benefit, with the assumption written down.
6. Assumed benefit, kept separate.
7. Sensitivity: what happens if the benefit is half.
Calculate net hours released as: volume × (baseline minutes − new execution minutes − review minutes) / 60 − additional exception hours. Close by answering the five questions a CFO would ask: what baseline and sample support the benefit; who reviews and handles exceptions and what it costs; which cost actually changes or where capacity is redeployed; what happens with lower adoption or half the benefit; what evidence would make us stop the plan and what it costs to exit. Where you cannot answer with the data I gave, write "evidence gap".
Output format: a table Block · Content, followed by the five questions with brief answers. Maximum 450 words. No introduction.
Rules:
- Do not turn released hours into money saved unless I tell you which real cost falls.
- Do not invent figures. If data is missing, write [DATA PENDING] and tell me how to get it.
- Label every assumption as an assumption.
- If critical information is missing, ask me at most 3 questions before answering.
- Answer in plain, direct business English, with no sales adjectives.
What to check in the answer:
Did it put anything under "verified" that was not actually measured with the same scope as the baseline?
Does the sensitivity change the recommendation, or does it just repeat the number divided by two?
Do the five questions have answers backed by data, or "evidence gap" where appropriate? If all five have answers, be suspicious.
Vic Sol